Research Abstract

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Right-wing populist parties rose to power in Italy on a wave of anti-immigrant sentiment following the 2015 migrant crisis, during which over 900,000 refugees arrived in Europe. The present study uses time series analyses to investigate claims by right-wing Italian politicians that immigration worsens the unemployment rates of native Italians. The analyses assess the effects of immigration on the unemployment rates of Italians at different education levels and the employment of Italians within specific economic sectors. Trends in the immigration population did not appear to align with trends in the unemployment rate of Italians at any education level, and a large increase in the agricultural sector’s share of immigrants did not accompany a sustained decrease of native employment. These results suggest that immigration was not a primary influence on Italian unemployment during the period 2006–2023, and that additions of immigrants to the labor market during the period 2013–2021 may have been absorbed by more intensive use of their labor in the agricultural sector.

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