Like many engaged citizens, driving change deeply interests me, particularly through grassroots power, which political parties increasingly harness for electoral success. As both a student of political science and a practitioner with Pollara Strategic Insights, campaign strategy fascinates me, not just as a tool for winning elections, but for its broader impact on how Members of Parliament represent us.

Research shows that constituency-level efforts, especially by smaller parties like the Liberal Democrats in the UK, can significantly shift electoral outcomes. This reached a zenith in 2024, where the Liberal Democrats, campaigning on a “local champion” strategy, increased their seat count by 650% on just a 5% (0.6 point) rise in vote share. Studies on electoral success through local campaigning, particularly on the Liberal Democrats, have largely focused on the mechanics of grassroots activism,4 the role of constituency targeting in marginal seats, the effects of campaign spending on vote share,6 the broader strategic advantages of continuous campaigning, and the party’s ability to convert local presence into electoral gains.

While much attention has been given to how local campaigns shape elections, far less is known about whether they change how MPs behave once in office. Some research suggests that politicians with strong local ties are more independent-minded and responsive to their constituents. If voters are being persuaded by local campaigns, it becomes essential to know whether that campaign rhetoric translates into substantive representation. MPs represent their constituents in Parliament; this study aims to understand campaign strategies impacts on parliamentary behaviour, constituent representation, and democratic governance itself.

Methodology

1. Conduct a literature review on first-past-the-post elections, especially as it relates to electoral efficiency (the translation of votes into seats) and theories of representation.
2. Develop a quantitative measure of the “localness” and riding-targeted nature of campaigns.
   • Proposed metrics include i) ad spending concentrations ii) other spending concentrations, iii) the proportion of website material that discusses local rather than national issues, iv) local council presence and v) other relevant metrics publicly available after conducting further research.
3. Use regression analysis in SPSS to measure the effect of local campaigning on electoral outcome.
4. Drawing on the distinction between party loyalist and constituency MPs, develop a quantitative measure of non-party responsiveness in Parliament.

• • Proposed metrics include i) petitions tabled[6] ii) frequency of breaking from party in voting iii) proportions of Hansard statements that refer to their constituency.[8] [9]

• I will control for confounding variables including historical petition activity by riding as well as party size, and MP role, among others, for all metrics.

   5. Use regression analysis in SPSS to measure the effect of local campaigning on parliamentary          behaviour.

   6. Write a research paper discussing the findings from the above-noted analysis and situating it within the relevant literature. I also aim to explore the findings’ applicability to other first-past-the-post countries.

Potential Impact