Monetary Policy Transmission in India: Evidence from the Housing Credit Channel - Abstract

I'm incredibly grateful for the opportunity to pursue macroeconomics research through the Laidlaw Program at Barnard College, under the mentorship of Professor Martina Jasova. As the first summer comes to an end, I'm excited to share the abstract from my research paper.
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This paper examines monetary policy transmission in India through the housing credit channel. While existing studies of Indian monetary transmission focus primarily on aggregate credit or lending-rate pass-through, less attention has been paid to whether policy affects different segments of the credit market differently, or whether institutional reform altered the distribution of those effects across outcomes. I use an annual state-level panel covering 28 Indian states and 8 union territories from 2012 to 2024, with three main outcomes: total bank credit, housing credit, and the number of borrower accounts. These are complemented by a monthly bank-level panel of 91 scheduled commercial banks examining lending-rate pass-through. The empirical strategy uses OLS with state and bank fixed effects, macro controls, and heterogeneity splits by financial development and by the Reserve Bank of India’s adoption of flexible inflation targeting in 2016. The results show that aggregate credit is not robustly responsive to the policy rate once controls and fixed effects are included, while housing credit and borrower accounts respond negatively and significantly. At the bank level, a one-percentage-point increase in the policy rate is associated with a 0.646 percentage point increase in MCLR-based lending rates, providing the pricing mechanism behind the state-level findings. Transmission is stronger in less financially developed states. Before 2016, only housing credit responds significantly; after 2016, total credit and borrower participation also become statistically significant. These findings suggest that monetary policy in India operates primarily through credit composition rather than aggregate credit volume, and that the 2016 inflation-targeting reform broadened the reach of transmission rather than initiating it. Evaluating monetary policy effectiveness in bank-dominated economies may therefore require closer attention to which segments of the credit market adjust, and under what institutional conditions.