From Wells to Warnings: Water Consumption and Agricultural Decline in Turkey
Abstract
Water scarcity is an intensifying challenge in Turkey, particularly in agriculturally dependent regions where overuse, climate variability, and inefficient irrigation systems converge. This project investigates how water scarcity—both in terms of natural availability and infrastructure—affects agricultural output and regional economic performance. Focusing on two contrasting regions, the Konya Closed Basin and the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) area, the research examines how differing water management strategies shape outcomes in agricultural productivity and regional GDP.
The project combines economic analysis with environmental data to quantify the impact of water stress. Using a difference-in-differences framework, I compare agricultural and economic indicators across regions and time to isolate the causal effects of water-related constraints. Complementary case studies draw on Turkish-language policy documents, government reports, and stakeholder interviews to contextualize the data and assess the policy landscape.
By connecting environmental stress to macroeconomic outcomes, this research aims to offer policy-relevant insights into the long-term benefits of investing in sustainable water infrastructure. It also reflects a broader ambition: to highlight the often-underappreciated link between natural resource management and economic resilience in emerging economies.
Research Objectives & Questions
Primary Objective:
- To assess how water scarcity affects agricultural productivity and regional economic outcomes in Turkey.
Secondary Objectives:
- To compare the development trajectories of two regions with contrasting water policies and stress levels.
- To evaluate the long-term economic benefits of sustainable irrigation and water management investments.
Background
This project builds on a growing literature that connects environmental resource management to economic development, particularly in the Global South. Turkey offers a unique context due to its regional disparities in water availability, infrastructure, and governance. Previous research in agricultural economics has examined the effects of droughts and irrigation on crop yields, but relatively few studies explore the macroeconomic consequences of water scarcity at the regional level.
I was influenced by policy reports from Turkey’s Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry and basin-level management plans, as well as academic work in environmental economics. My mentor, Dr. King, encouraged a focus on empirical causal identification and policy relevance. This project is also informed by the interdisciplinary turn in development economics toward environmental sustainability as a core component of economic planning.
Methodology
I will use a difference-in-differences (DiD) approach to quantify the impact of water stress on agricultural and economic outcomes. By comparing regions with differing exposure to water scarcity before and after key interventions (droughts, irrigation projects), I aim to isolate causal effects. I supplement the econometric analysis with case study methods, drawing on regional reports, maps, policy documents, and qualitative information such as interviews with local stakeholders or officials (when possible). The study focuses on the Konya Closed Basin (characterized by groundwater depletion and rainfed farming) and the GAP region (home to large-scale irrigation projects and river infrastructure).
Potential Impact
The findings could be useful to policymakers, development agencies, and international actors focused on water governance and climate adaptation. More broadly, the project advocates for integrating ecological limits into economic modeling—an approach increasingly relevant in the face of climate change.
Resources & Support Needed
Access to regional economic data from Turkish statistical agencies (TÜİK), agricultural ministry reports, and water basin management plans.