The Ecology of War: Spatiotemporal Analysis of Forest Loss in Conflict‑Affected Regions of Central Myanmar
Supervisor:
Dr Gbotemi Adediran | School of Earth and Environment | University of Leeds
Background (Motivation)
Growing up in Myanmar, I witnessed how the war disrupted everyday life, communities, and livelihoods. Yet, while the severity of conflict is often measured through casualties, displacement, and political instability, its impacts on the environment receive far less attention.
Myanmar has experienced widespread political violence since the 2021 military coup, while environmental governance has simultaneously weakened. Myanmar is currently one of the world's most fragmented conflict environments and is now among the most deforested countries globally, with forest loss contributing to rising temperatures (2–3°C). The study focuses on the Central Dry Zone, one of the country's most environmentally vulnerable regions and the area that has experienced the highest concentration of armed conflict since the coup. As someone from Myanmar and now studying Environmental Science, I became interested in a question that sits at the intersection of these experiences: what happens to the environment when conflict makes monitoring, conservation, and land management increasingly difficult?
This project represents an opportunity to investigate a question that is both personally meaningful and academically underexplored.
Methodology
To investigate these patterns, I will use satellite remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS).
Landsat 8–9 satellite imagery will be used to measure vegetation change between 2020 and 2024 through the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a widely used indicator of vegetation health and density. These data will be processed in QGIS to generate maps of forest cover change over time.
I will then combine these environmental datasets with conflict event records from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). By overlaying conflict intensity maps with vegetation change maps and applying spatial analysis techniques, I will explore whether areas experiencing greater conflict also show greater environmental change.
Importantly, conflict will be treated as one of several interacting influences. Findings will be interpreted alongside existing evidence on land-use practices, governance conditions, and local livelihoods to better understand the complexity of environmental change in conflict-affected regions.
Research Questions
- How has forest cover in Central Myanmar changed between 2021 and 2024?
- To what extent are these changes associated with armed conflict events during the same period?
- What other environmental, socio-economic, or governance factors may help explain the observed forest cover change, given the local context?
Outputs and Impact
The project will produce a multi-year dataset of forest cover change in Central Myanmar, high-resolution maps identifying potential environmental degradation hotspots, and a statistical assessment of the relationship between conflict intensity and forest loss.
Beyond the specific case of Myanmar, I hope this research demonstrates how satellite-based methods can be used to monitor environmental change in places where fieldwork is difficult or impossible. The methodology could potentially be applied to other conflict-affected regions, extending to additional environmental indicators such as surface water change or soil moisture anomalies.
The findings will be shared through accessible visual outputs and a research poster, with the aim of contributing to conversations among researchers, environmental organisations, and policy stakeholders interested in environmental recovery, conservation, and conflict-sensitive approaches to sustainability.
Remarks
As a teenager living through political instability, I saw how conflict destroyed homes, livelihoods, and intensified environmental issues. Now, as a university student, this project represents a shift from lived experiences to accountable actions. It allows me to apply the skills I have been developing to a context that matters deeply to me and the field's literature, while building a foundation for future work at the intersection of environmental science, conflict and recovery methods.