Supervisor: Dr Resul Umit | Durham University.
Project background
My pre-defined research project aims to improve Dr Umit Resul’s comprehensive constituency level dataset of UK general elections from 1832-2024 and utilise it in my independent research into the relationship between expansions of electoral franchise and voter turnout and political participation i.e. constituency competition, with the hopes that statistical analysis of historical data on General elections can provide insight into the effectiveness of votes at 16 in 2029 on youth participation and how such a policy measure could impact the UK political landscape.
My interest in this project was driven by a strong interest around how the historic expansion of voter franchise in the late 19th and 20th centuries shapes democratic participation, specifically voter turnout and constituency competition.
The dataset provides a rare opportunity to undertake a longitudinal study using data from historical expansions of voter franchise, for instance the second and third reform of 1867 and 1884, which gave the vote to renters amongst the urban and rural working and middle class, reforms in 1918 which gave all men aged 21 and over the vote, and the subsequent women suffrage in 1928, which gave the same voting rights as men. And finally the lowering of the voting age to 18 in 1969. These reforms during the 19th and 20th centuries, provide invaluable insights into how historical reforms affected voter turnout and constituency competition.
With the current Labour government proposing to introduce votes at 16 for national parliamentary elections from 2029 onwards, there will undoubtedly be further significant change to the political landscape. The impact is unknown especially given that 18-25-year-olds have traditionally one of the lowest turnouts, estimated at only 37% in the 2024 General Election (Ipsos, 2024) and that voters who vote in the first election they are eligible in, are more likely to keep voting and participating in democracy. (BRUNO CASTANHO SILVA, 2024).
Drawing on historical data and trends will give insight into what the impact to voter turnout and constituency competition may be. This will be coupled with drawing from insights from the introduction of votes at 16 in Scotland in 2016 and Wales in 2020, with initial findings showing that 16 and 17-year-olds who do vote will continue to do so in their 20s. (Eichhorn and Huebner (2025). It must be noted though, given how recent votes at 16 has been introduced at a regional level and not yet at a national level, there is limited data on the longer term effects to voter turnout and constituency competition.
I hope looking at the trends and data from previous voter franchise reforms will provide insight into how increasing the franchise from the 2029 General Election onwards could impact the longer term political landscape, including voter turnout and constituency competition as a metric of political participation.
Research question
How does the expansion of the electoral franchise impact overall democracy through the metrics of voter turnout and electoral competition, and how will the introduction of votes at 16, impact the UK political landscape and the engagement of young people in politics?
Research objectives
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Analyse how historic electoral franchise expansions impacted both overall and regional voter turnout in subsequent General elections
- Examine the relationship between electoral expansion and the end of unopposed parliamentary constituency seats.
- Through analysis of data from votes at 16 in Scotland and Wales in devolved elections, coupled with historical trends gathered from the dataset. Surmise the potential short and long term implications of votes at 16 on a national level, both in terms of impact on voter turnout, and engagement of young people in politics and how political parties may shift their policy priorities and commitments to cater for a new segment of the electorate.
Methodology
The research project first involves me auditing and improving a comprehensive database of UK Parliamentary elections at a constituency level between 1832-2024; using historical data from the library. Then writing a research output on 'Investigating How the Expansion of Voter Franchise in the 19th and 20th Century Affected Candidacy Competition and Voter Turnout at the Constituency Level in Parliamentary Elections, and the Potential Effects of Votes at 16 on British Democracy.' And accompanying poster.
Through statistical analysis in R, using Linear Regression models I will be looking at particular periods from the late 19th to the mid 20th century, where the UK expanded the eligibility to vote. For instance the 1867 reforms to allow renters rather than just homeowners to vote, women gaining the vote in 1928 and 1969 reforms lowering the age to vote from 21 to 18. From this I will investigate not only how electoral turnout i.e. what percentage of the voting population turned out to vote, was affected post electoral reforms. But its impact nationally on the political landscape of the UK as well as looking at how competition for election as an MP changed post reforms.
This will then allow me not only to surmise how expanding the eligibility to vote impacts overall democracy through the metrics of voter turnout and electoral competition, but through drawing upon recent devolved elections in Scotland and Wales which have allowed votes at 16, predict what could happen when votes at 16 is introduced nationally from the 2029 UK parliamentary election.